Lakewood Observer: "Five Years Of Stable Enrollment At Lakewood Elementary Schools"

This article appeared in the August 20, 2025, edition of the Lakewood Observer.

by Zach Robock

Emotions run high in the Lakewood elementary schools dialogue, so it is important to step back and focus on facts. 

First, elementary enrollment in Lakewood City Schools has held steady since the 2020-2021 school year, and the latest district enrollment study predicts elementary enrollment to remain stable through 2035.  It’s important to focus on recent elementary enrollment when evaluating next steps for our elementary buildings.  Instead, Superintendent Niedzwiecki often cites a ten-year declining enrollment trend across all of K-12, but the key decline during that ten-year trend occurred during the initial five years – from 2015-2020.  The district makes two key errors in its analysis and communication: (i) it focuses on a generalized ten-year enrollment trend that lumps together high school, middle school, and elementary school data, instead of focusing on elementary enrollment, and (ii) it does not distinguish between two very distinct time periods: the more distant 5-year pre-covid decline and the more recent 5-year stability.

A second key metric is the “Birth to Kindergarten” retention rate, which reflects the percentage of children born in Lakewood that eventually enroll in Lakewood Kindergarten.  The average retention rate has been generally increasing, with the 2023-2024 school year achieving a ten-year high at 60% (’23-’24 was the last year with data provided).  This suggests positive momentum in our community as more young families choose to put down roots here, rather than move to other suburbs or attend other schools.  Importantly, at only 60%, there is still room for significant growth as post-covid trends favoring small cities like Lakewood continue to attract and retain young families seeking walkable communities with high-quality school systems.  If this trend continues and an increasing portion of that missing 40% attends Lakewood schools, enrollment should remain stable or increase, even against a declining birth rate trend.  There is also new residential construction underway in the city, which was not factored into the enrollment study.

Based on early enrollment data shared with the Task Force in May, a dip in Kindergarten enrollment is expected for the upcoming 2025-2026 school year.  If that dip materializes, it would be a mistake for the district to seize on it as evidence of decline and that imminent action is needed.

After five years of steady enrollment and a positive Birth-Kindergarten retention rate trend, the main variable that changed for this upcoming school year is the cloud of uncertainty surrounding potential school consolidation over the last 12 months.  Many families with children who are on the border of entering Kindergarten or spending another year in Pre-K, would logically wait and see what happens with the elementary school consolidation. Other families may choose to attend a non-public school or move out of the city.  It’s unlikely that school consolidation alone would dictate a family’s decision, but for those already wavering for other reasons, this may be the final push. The district is creating a self-fulfilling prophecy.

An enrollment decline did occur between 2015-2020, which is important to acknowledge. However, this decline was predicted and addressed in the 2013-2016 time period when the city shrunk its elementary footprint from eleven aging schools to the current seven.  There was extensive debate at the time whether to keep six or seven, and the community ultimately voted by a 70% margin to issue bonds to renovate or rebuild all seven schools.  All three schools under consideration for consolidation were newly rebuilt or renovated during this time period; none require any significant capital investment today.

The district budget increased by $800k under the final state budget, and Gov. DeWine vetoed the cash balance cap, so the district should be in a stable financial position for the time being.  A levy is coming up soon (regardless of school consolidation).  Instead of misleading narratives about declining enrollment and unnecessary alarmism, the district should be using its voice to promote the wonderful teachers and staff that underlie our schools and the stability we have achieved, bringing the community together to take pride and invest in our city and the public education of our children.

Note:  Most underlying data for this article is available on the district’s Elementary Task Force website, Slides 3-4, 6 and 8-9 in the Feb. 19, 2025 presentation (Updated Enrollment & Capacity). Other data from Cleveland.com articles – Aug. 7, 2025 ($800k budget increase data), and Nov. 6, 2013 (70% voter approval).

Zach is a Member of the Elementary Planning Task Force and Candidate for Lakewood Board of Education.

Editor's Note: Zach is not affiliated with Preserve Lakewood Schools.

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